Way-Too-Early 2023 NFL Mock Draft
The 2022 NFL Draft is behind us, but 2023 is loaded with some really strong position groups and a return to multiple first-round quarterbacks. Here's how I see it right now.
The 2022 NFL Draft was full of surprises; from the quarterbacks free-falling to the flurry of trades, last weekend was incredibly exciting. But my early feeling is that the 2023 NFL Draft is stronger on the offensive side of the football, pushing skill positions and tons of quarterbacks back up boards and into the first round. The picks were pulled from Vegas win totals, so yell at them - not me - if you’re upset at where your team’s projected pick is.
1. Houston Texans - CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
CJ Stroud is one of the more accurate throwers of the football that I’ve ever watched. His ability to push the ball to all three levels with nearly perfect placement is unmatched in the 2023 class. He has plus-zip and has quick eyes when processing the field. Justin Fields was my QB1, and I can make an argument that after the 2022 college football season, I’ll have Stroud as the more refined thrower - if not outright quarterback - between the two Buckeye alums.
2. Atlanta Falcons - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Bryce Young entered 2021 as the consensus QB1 in the 2023 draft class, and he didn’t do a whole lot to lose that title; Stroud was simply that good to have jumped him. Bryce has some issues that Stroud doesn’t: footwork being the top of the list. Bryce has adequate to above average zip, fantastic placement, and a nice ability to extend plays. Those qualities alone should keep him near the top of the 2023 draft class.
3. New York Jets - Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
I don’t think the Jets will be picking this high, but if they somehow are, Will Anderson is the easiest sprint-the-card-in pick the franchise has ever made. Anderson is the best player in this class. His elite athleticism gives him the first step on just about everyone, and his ability to bend at his size is truly remarkable. He’s a Myles Garrett-Chase Young type of prospect.
4. Seattle Seahawks - Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Georgia Bulldogs just broke the record for most players selected in a singular NFL Draft with 15, and yet, the best one from their championship roster will return for the 2022 season. Jalen Carter is as disruptive as any defensive tackle prospect in the last three years. He’s an incredible athlete with success at each spot on the defensive line. His pass rush ability is next to none in the interior defensive line class, and I expect him to be a top-ten pick in 2023.
5. Carolina Panthers - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
It’s easy to project who leads the pack of “most divisive prospects” as we head into the summer. Will Levis has some significant issues on his film. He locks into one read (that read was often rookie wideout Wan’Dale Robinson) and makes some awful decisions at times. He also possesses fantastic arm talent, with the ability to make virtually any throw. His deep ball accuracy is concerning, but assuming he grows in the new Kentucky offense, I expect the NFL to love him.
6. Detroit Lions - Jaren Hall, QB, BYU
This one may shock some, but if we’re speaking of toolsy, athletic quarterback prospects, Jaren Hall should be involved. Hall is a dynamic athlete with true dual-threat ability. He’s fantastic throwing on the run, and while his arm strength isn’t elite, it’s certainly not a hindrance on most occasions. His game reminds me of Kyler Murray, albeit a lesser version at this stage of his career. Hall had two redshirt years and will enter the 2023 NFL Draft as an older prospect, but he has an opportunity to grow as a passer against top-flight talent in 2022. I think he could take steps forward and end up a surprise riser.
7. Chicago Bears - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Bears largely decided that wideout was a secondary (or even tertiary) need during the 2022 NFL Draft, passing on the position twice with incredible talent still on the board. They currently would roll into 2022 with Byron Pringle and Velus Jones listed as starters at the position. They invested heavily in offensive line, and the strategy of drafting a ton of Day 3 guys at the same position will likely give them at least one starting-caliber offensive lineman. No better time to add an incredible talent at wide receiver. Smith-Njigba was dominant in 2021 and I expect that dominance to carry over into 2022 with QB1 remaining to get him the football. He’s a nice YAC player, and his ability to find soft spots in zones is immaculate. Oh, and JSN and Fields shared the field in 2020, even if JSN had a much lesser role. Seems smart. Is Ryan Poles a smart drafter? Not sure yet.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Bryan Bresee had an up-and-down year at Clemson in 2021. The team, in general, was quite bad, and Bresee saw snaps in just 4 games after tearing his ACL in September. But those four games were littered with first-round film. His size and length create issues for interior offensive linemen, and while he can play a little too upright at times, he uses the aforementioned length to be dominant in wrapping up ball carriers. I expect a bounce back year from Bresee following the injury; enough of one to place him in the top ten.
9. New York Giants - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
There truly isn’t a better situation for a crazy athlete that has accuracy issues than with folks from an organization that helped develop Josh Allen. It remains to be seen if Richardson will declare, but if he takes steps forward as a passer, it’s hard to imagine him being available here at 9 (he says after the toolsy quarterbacks fell in the 2022 draft). His rushing ability alone gives him a solid NFL floor, but his arm strength is elite, as well. Richardson taking steps forward will still leave him as a slightly flawed prospect, but Brian Daboll can make it happen for him.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO) - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Eagles had a fantastic weekend at the NFL Draft, adding piece after piece to surround Jalen Hurts with copious amounts of talent. The acquisition of AJ Brown would lead us to believe that they will aim to throw the football a bit more, but the ambiguity surrounding Miles Sanders’ future suggests that they will look elsewhere for their long-term answer. Bijan is one of the cleanest running back prospects I can remember. His hands and route running ability are that of a wideout. His footwork is so ridiculously advanced. He runs with patience, constantly allowing blocks to develop in front of him without panicking. He’s a three-down, feature back that will likely break the mold of “running backs don’t matter” drafting.
11. Washington Commanders - Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
I’ll admit that this one comes with a lot of projection, though Ringo seemed to improve as the season progressed in his first year with meaningful playing time. He has scheme versatility, flashing in both man and zone concepts, and his ball skills are solid. He lacks physicality and while he doesn’t punch a whole lot, he remains balanced in press man coverage. Ringo has to take a leap, but a player with his recruiting pedigree is one that I tend to bet on to do just that.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers - Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Peter Skoronski is a clean pass protector. The Steelers are currently slated to start Dan Moore Jr. at left tackle for 2022. A lot of folks are projecting Skoronski inside, and maybe I’m helmet scouting, but Rashawn Slater was also thought of in a similar light heading into his final season at Northwestern. Skoronski has fantastic footwork and a mean streak in him; he’s no slouch in the run game, either. He lacks ideal weight (can easily put on 10-15 pounds within his frame), but he makes up for that with sound technique and a really solid anchor. Operation Protect Kenny (so he can bail out of the clean pocket anyway).
13. Minnesota Vikings - Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The second of the Clemson defensive linemen comes here at pick 13. Murphy isn’t always the bendiest player on the field, but he has an explosive first step, a really solid toolbox of pass rush moves, and an above average motor. He’s a fantastic athlete, and I assume that him and Bresee will create chaos (shoutout Scarlet Witch - happy Doctor Strange Week!) for opposing offenses in 2022. Murphy outside of the top ten honestly feels wrong, but quarterbacks can do that, I guess.
14. Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Catalon, SAF, Arkansas
The Eagles may not view safety as a premium position, but Jalen Catalon is a dude. He’s as versatile as any safety prospect, being utilized as a defensive weapon rather than simply as a backfield safety net. He has fantastic range and ball skills, and while he may be a bit undersized for some teams, I think his play in 2023 will solidify his place in the top 20 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
15. Las Vegas Raiders - Blake Freelund, OT, BYU
Blake Freelund chose to return to school in 2022, and for good reason. Freelund is a 6’8, 305-pound offensive tackle prospect with great movement skills and surprisingly impressive handwork. He has NFL length, and he would’ve been a Day 2 pick based on his 2021 film. He returned to school and will get tons of marquee matchups to show off his improved skills, and he should be a riser through the 2022 college football season.
16. Miami Dolphins - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Michael Mayer certainly isn’t Kyle Pitts, but he’s also an absolutely fantastic tight end prospect in the mold of TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, and other first-round prospects. Mayer is more than a tight end; he’s a weapon in the receiving game and after the catch. He has legit shake within his stems and should be an immediate impact player for an NFL team in 2023. Here, the Dolphins get a do-it-all tight end, something they don’t currently have on the roster.
17. New England Patriots - Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Nolan Smith was the best pass-rushing edge defender on the Georgia Bulldogs in 2021. Yes, better than the one went with the first overall pick last weekend. Smith blends absurd athleticism with a solid amount of bend and a variety of pass rush moves in his bag. He’s a highly instinctual player that probably would’ve been drafted in the 2nd or 3rd Round this year. Here, the Patriots do what the Patriots of old would do: draft well.
18. Arizona Cardinals - Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Joey Porter Jr. is a fantastic football player. In preparing to write this, I popped on his film against Ohio State to see how he performed against three of the bests guys in the nation. Outside of the two absolutely insane pieces of route running art that Garrett Wilson put on that film, Porter was a menace. He uses his length well to jam at the line of scrimmage. He has fluid hips that allow him to be a sticky man coverage defender. He also played in a variety of zone concepts and did quite well there, too. Porter Jr. is currently my CB1 as we head into 2022; Cardinals get a steal.
19. Baltimore Ravens - Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
There’s a lot of buzz about Clark Phillips, the kid out of Utah, but I see Cam Smith as a guy who could rise up boards with a solid outing in 2022. His press technique is fantastic. He is the most physical corner I’ve watched thus far. Sounds like a Raven, right? His tackling could use some work and while he is physical and sound in press, his overall play strength could use a bit of a boost. But Smith is a guy who popped on film when I first watched him, and I expect he’ll do so for folks throughout 2022.
20. Houston Texans (via CLV) - Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
Isaiah Foskey was a borderline first-round player for me when I evaluated him for last weekend’s draft. He was a redshirt sophomore that was technically draft-eligible, but chose to return to Notre Dame for his redshirt junior season. Foskey is a hard-hitting, explosive edge player with nice bend for a 260-pound guy. He has incredibly powerful hands and a plus-motor, as well. He could stand to improve his pass rush plan on a snap-to-snap basis, but that’s why he’s back at Notre Dame. Texans should still just be taking best player available next year. I see Foskey as that.
21. Indianapolis Colts - Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami
Tyler Van Dyke is a name that has burst onto the radar, but devy folks have been aware of him for quite some time. Van Dyke has NFL size and an NFL arm, and he loves to show it off. He can change arm angles and retain accuracy, get out and throw on the run, and his game reminds me a lot of Andrew Luck at Stanford (this is not a ceiling comp; just a play style comp). He isn’t perfect, and goes through spells of inaccuracy and questionable decision-making, but that will come with time. Van Dyke would have the opportunity to learn from Matt Ryan in Year 1 before taking over as the heir to the increasingly long list of great quarterbacks to lead the home offense at Lucas Oil Stadium.
22. Tennessee Titans - Jordan McFadden, OT, Clemson
Jordan McFadden has some legit length concerns. He also, like Skoronski, is just incredibly clean. He has fantastic foot speed, plays with tenacity, has a patient but powerful punch, and rarely is overpowered. He may end up a guard at the NFL level, but a good year should put him firmly in back-of-round-one discussions.
23. Cincinnati Bengals - Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
Michael Mayer isn’t the only first-round tight end in the 2023 NFL Draft class. LaPorta is an incredible pass catcher, consistently using his shake and footwork to get open (when asked to run more than a 5-yard curl). He has strong hands, specifically in contested catch situations, and he’s potentially more athletic than Mayer. The Bengals have Hayden Hurst and not much else. I could absolutely see them invest highly in the position in 2023.
24. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN) - Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
Listen, I wouldn’t do this.
I repeat: I wouldn’t do this.
But Spencer Rattler was a consensus first-overall draft pick as he headed into his redshirt sophomore season with Oklahoma in 2021. Things obviously didn’t work out, and Rattler has some maturity questions that need to be resolved in 2022. But he has tools. He’s not the most athletic guy in the world, but he has an absolute hose and throws like a shortstop. If he can stop “throwing like a shortstop” into triple coverage every other play, there’s a world in which an NFL franchise bets on the talent.
25. Miami Dolphins (via SF) - Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
The Dolphins just got Channing Tindall at a nice value in the 2022 NFL Draft, but he’s no sure thing and the alternative options aren’t great. Trenton Simpson is a freak athlete. He has an incredible size-speed combo and is a force as a pass rusher. He has a nose for the football and has some nice hit power. The Dolphins will likely continue to play 3-4 with their current roster construction, and there’s no better player to toss into one of the outside linebacker spots than Simpson. Especially this late in the first.
26. Los Angeles Chargers - Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
The odds that WR2 doesn’t come off the board until pick 26 is incredibly slim, I understand. But with the incredibly high investment in the position in 2022, there’s a chance that teams are looking to fill needs elsewhere after gaining some stability. Boutte added to the Chargers’ WR room wouldn’t be a fair outcome. He has some things to work on (namely, his ability to beat press coverage), and he’s working his way back from injury, but I expect the NFL to gush over his size-speed combo and keep him in the first round; even if all else fails.
27. Detroit Lions (via LAR) - Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
The Lions have largely felt comfortable with their linebacking room through this offseason, but I expect that to change after they actually see that room hit the field in 2022. Sewell is an interesting evaluation. He’s listed at 6’3, 251, but on film he looks much smaller. He is fantastic in coverage, playing with remarkable instincts and being able to shut down virtually anyone he lines up against. He struggles with his run fits, but when he gets it right, those instincts pop out. He sheds blocks well and has nice range. I am on the fence that he will be a first-round player, but the football intelligence makes me believe he’ll also crush his interviews. OH! And his brother will likely have something to say about this pick, when asked.
28. Dallas Cowboys - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
The Cowboys have an out in Ezekiel Elliott’s contract after the 2022 season, and while I think he’s still a great running back, it would be financially irresponsible to ignore that option. Jahmyr Gibbs is going to break college football within the Alabama offense in 2022. He may be a bit small for some teams, but he’s incredibly shifty, possesses a dynamic pass catching skillset, and runs with decisiveness. I believe he’ll add a bit of weight and look more like a player who can handle a full workload next pre-draft cycle, meaning he could very well be in first-round conversation.
29. Kansas City Chiefs - Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
Eli Ricks has had quite the ride over the last couple of years. He went from looking like the best corner on LSU (yes, better than Stingley at times) to transferring out of the program entirely and getting arrested this past week. Nick Saban may toss him in the doghouse, but the talent and athleticism are there. The off-field stuff is the only thing I see preventing him from going about 25 picks before this.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Clark Phillips, CB, Utah
Clark Phillips is a player that seems to be on the radar for a ton of NFL teams. He’s certainly undersized (5’10, 178-pounds), but he plays much bigger. He possesses fantastic ball skills and his 2021 peak came in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State (yes, the one with three first-round wideouts). Phillips’ toughness will certainly be appealing to Bruce Arians in his consulting role, and I think the Bucs’ brass will be very fond of this kid.
31. Green Bay Packers - Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
Christian Watson isn’t enough. Not when there’s legitimate shots at Super Bowls in the near future. Watson, Lazard, and Cobb currently profile as the array of weapons at Aaron Rodgers’ disposal, and while I’m sure he appreciates the efforts to add pieces to the offensive line in addition to trading up for Watson, he will likely want more. Downs is an incredible yards-after-catch wideout. He doesn’t always display the most natural hands and he’s a small guy with a thin frame, but getting the ball in his hands can result in a touchdown at any given moment. He’s got that speed that the NFL will love. The Packers thrive off of good YAC players. This would be a fantastic player-to-team fit.
32. Buffalo Bills - Jordan Battle, SAF, Alabama
The Bills have two fantastic safeties, but they’re both approaching their twilight years, and retooling the position on the fly makes a lot of sense (to me, at least). Jordan Battle is a hard-hitting safety with plus coverage ability who absolutely showed out on the Alabama defense in 2021. He rarely misses tackles, and he plays with fantastic instincts. I expect Battle to build on that as Alabama looks to play in the title game for the 7,000,000 time in the last 7,000,001 opportunities (look it up!) again in 2023.
Some of My Favorite Watches Thus Far:
Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB, Washington - fantastic tackler whose high football intelligence oozes out onto his film. Battling a pretty serious injury and will likely miss some time. Could be a late riser.
Marcus Valdez, DL, Boston College - sixth-year senior with an incredibly high motor. Think he could be a Senior Bowl invitee and his ceiling is probably a late day two pick.
Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State - Paris Johnson didn’t make my mock because I need to see some legit tackle reps, but Dawand Jones almost did. He’s a massive dude that looks like if Daniel Faalele could move a little bit. Excited to see him grow in the Ohio State offense.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Virginia - former 3-star recruit that has really put some impressive reps on film over the last couple of years. Fantastic release package and is constantly refining his routes. Good YAC guy. Should be a day two pick.
Kendall Milton, RB, Georgia - fantastic athlete with some absolutely absurd contact balance. Violent runner with good footwork. Possesses long speed and copious amounts of burst. Have him ranked ahead of Tank Bigsby and devy-favorite Sean Tucker.